SiouxLand

I lost my oldest brother last week, which is strange because I am an only child.

Phil Fleming, who I have known since 1979, died last week from the cancer that destroyed his body and the treatment that was meant to prolong his life.

Most of you don't know who Phil is.  That's ok, I'll tell you about him.

I met Phil at KTWU-TV in Topeka, KS when I was a student reporter there and he was the development director.  He was the funniest person I had ever met, quick with a biting and insightful joke about our station or politics.  He also did a dead-on impression of our station manager, Dr. Dale N. Anderson, which almost made me pee my pants, it was so funny.

But Phil was far more than a cut-up.  Though he spent his career in the rather buttoned down world of public TV and non-profit fundraising and development, he was one of the most free spirited people I have ever met.  One summer in college or as a young man, he decided he was going to be a hermit.  He went to Greece and actually lived in a cave, by himself.  His Thoreau-like experiment turned into drudgery and he gave it up.

But how many people can say they lived in a cave in Greece for any length of time? 

Also in college, Phil decided to drop out.  This was in the midsts of the protests during the Vietnam war and Phil said he was a self-styled hippie.  He went to work at a turkey factory, killing turkeys for your Thanksgiving table.

A rather big man even then, Phil wore white overalls with a big "69" painted on the front, his middle finger to "The Man."  To amuse himself during the mind and soul numbing work, he would picture himself as an executioner.  As a turkey rolled by on the conveyer, he'd say, "Should you live or should you die? I say you shall live!"  Then, he's whap off its head and say, "I'm sorry, I lied."

He said a summer of being a turkey killer was enough to make the burgeouis experience of higher education much more attractive.

And while Phil would ply the boardrooms of corporarations and foundations in Topeka lookiPhing for money for our little PBS station, he was also a sun worshipper.  I mean all of his body worshipped the sun.  Yes, he like to go swimming naked at what he called "The Pool" in Topeka.  There, he and fellow nudists of all genders, shapes, and sizes would swim and sunbathe naked.  Even burned his little fundraiser one day.  Phil invited me to "The Pool" in Topeka many times and I refused.  Now, I wish I had gone, at least once. 

Phil even brought this "hippie" sensibility to fund raising on KTWU.  We had one who night where we all dressed up as hippies or characters from the 1960s and raged against "The Man" during the fund raising breaks.  We had fun.  And we made a crap load of money that night, as our audience responded with their wallets.  This was in 1981 or so.  I've never seen a PBS station do anything like that before or sense.

Phil was able to stradle the two worlds of being himself and working for "The Man" and be true to both.

Surprisingly, Phil was a clothes horse.  He probably single handedly kept the Ray Beers mens shop in business.  Phil taught me how to dress like a proper gentleman.  At the least, I gave up leisure suits and clip on ties.  I still have and wear nice silk ties that Phil helped me pick out 30 years ago.

Phil was also my first mentor as a broadcaster.  He worked on my "presence."  He would gently give his cocky know-it-all advice on how to be a better journalist and performer on TV.

Almost immediately upon meeting me in 1979, he started calling me "Dork."  Then I would call him "Dork to Nth Degree" and we'd try to out "Dork" the other in name calling.  We were still doing it up until the last time I talked to him a month or two ago.  Three decades plus of "Dorkiness."

We'd also try to "rank" the other by coming up with the most disgusting thing they could be.  I might say, "You are nothing more than a maggot in a pile of horse manure."  He might respond, "Todd, you are nothing more than a boil ready to pop on a hyena's ass on a hot summer day on the Serengeti."  He always could "out rank" me.

Yes, juvenile, I know.  But I never had a big brother to do this sort of stuff with. 

There's so much more I could say about my friend Phil.  He taught me a lot about life while having fun doing it.  I thought he had another six months the last time I talked to him.  But I guess God needed a big brother of his own in heaven to make him laugh.

Thanks Phil for being my friend and "big brother."

I pretty much nailed it yesterday in my statistical analysis that Mike "The Heat" Huether would defeat Kermit "Dr. No" Staggers.

It wasn't even close:

VOTES PERCENT

   PRECINCTS COUNTED (OF 58) 58  100.00
   REGISTERED VOTERS - TOTAL 91,720
   BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL      32,272
   VOTER TURNOUT - TOTAL          35.19

    Mayor
          Vote for  1
           Kermit L. Staggers  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    13,968   43.34
           Mike Huether  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    18,264   56.66
              Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        13
             Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        27

I did go the wrong way on the voter turnout. I predicted a 4% drop off and instead there was an increase of 1.5% to 35%.  So I missed the turnout by a ways which reduced my "Win Number" significantly.  I said the Win Number was about 13,000 votes.  The actual Win Number was 16,137 votes, so I was 3,000 votes off, which is not so good.

But I did say The Heat would likely win comfortably.  He did, by 13%, which is a landslide.

Not bad for a political newcomer, a banker, a Democrat, and a nice guy!  South Dakota, a political star was born last night.  His name is Mike Huether.

In today's runoff for Sioux Falls mayor against The Heat (Mike Huether) and Dr. No (Kermit Staggers), there are no more votes (or at least not many more) for Dr. No.

Let's go to the statistics.

The first thing we need to figure is the "Win Number."  How many votes will it take to win?

There are approximately 92,605 registered voters in Sioux Falls.  In 2006, there was a 3.5% drop off from the first election (37%) to the runoff (33.5%).  In 2010, the first election had a turnout of 32%.  If we assume a 4% drop off in turnout (28%) x 92,605 voters, that equals 25,929 votes will be cast today.  Divide that by 2 and add one vote and the Win Number is 12,965.

So, The Heat or Dr. No will have to get about 13,000 votes to win.  In 2006, Mayor Dave Munson beat Dr. Bruce Halverson 13,983 (52%) to 13,092 (48%).

However, in 2006, also in a crowded field, in the first election Mayor Munson received 8,423 votes (27%) and Dr. Halverson received 6,374 votes (21%).  Two weeks ago, Dr. No had 49 more votes (7,364) to The Heat's 7,315 votes.

Dr. Halverson, though he lost, had an "Epp Factor" of 2.0 (6,374 votes/13,092 votes) versus Mayor Munson's Epp Factor of 1.66 (8,423/13983).  In other words, Halverson captured 2 votes for every 1.66 votes that Munson captured in the general vis-a-vis the runoff (In other words, Halverson picked up more support from the defeated candidates at a higher rate than Munson did).  The differential was in Halverson's favor but he had too much ground to make up.

Tonight, if Huether has an Epp Factor of 2.0, he'll win in a landslide.  Even if he has an Epp Factor that outstrips Staggers by a ratio of only 1.01 to 1.0, Huether wins.  A .01 differential based on my projected turn out is 130 votes.

2006 featured a political newcomer versus a well known, many times elected incumbent.  2010 is very similar, the differences being that Staggers is not an incumbent mayor but an incumbent councilor and that Huether, the newcomer, has even less ground to make up than Halverson had to.  The 2006 election was about the status quo v. change, with the status quo eeking out a victory.  Here, put your money on change and The Heat.

I'm not a statistician by any stretch.  However, given the numbers, history, and expected turnout, look for a comfortable Mike Huether victory tonight.  But that's why they play the game.  Citizens have to vote, God only knows what's really on people's minds, and what have the candidates done to assure victory or plant the seeds of their own demise?

And also remember: there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Stay tuned.

Sioux Falls needs more "Heat!"

That's what I urge in today's Argus Leader Letters section--that those of you who can actually vote in Sioux Falls vote* for Mike Huether--"The Heat."

An excerpt:

Sioux Falls needs Huether's business and management abilities. He has managed hundreds of people and multimillion dollar budgets. He knows how to flatten bloated hierarchies and budgets. He will be a positive cost-cutter at City Hall.

Because of Huether's extensive business background and positive nature, he will be an ideal person to talk to corporate leaders who might want to move or expand in Sioux Falls. He talks their language. But at the same time, he is just as comfortable talking to and understanding the needs of a retiree on a fixed income, a new immigrant to Sioux Falls, an owner of a small business on Phillips Avenue or a young person beginning his or her career in our great community. Huether listens.

*While most of my professional, social, and recreational life is lived in Sioux Falls, alas, I am a resident of Harrisburg, the Garden Spot of Lincoln County, and cannot vote for My Man Mike.

While some Republicans try to smear Sioux Falls mayoral candidate Mike Huether for being--horror of horrors--a Democrat and using Democrats to help him get elected--another group has gone completely cukoo for Cocoa Puffs.  Their charge?  Mike Huether is a member of the "Illuminati" and using "Illuminati" symbols in his campaign, whatever those might be.


We start with Exhibit A, from none other than anti-abortion queen Leslee Unruh from her Facebook page:


And then we proceed to Exhibit B, from a recent commenter on an early post here on the MBS announcing Mike's run for mayor:

Let me just come right out and say it.  This is the stupidest attack on a candidate in the history of South Dakota elections.  You might not like Mike because you disagree with his vision for the city, that he's a banker, that he's a Democrat, that he plays tennis, or that he's from Yankton.  But a believer in the New World Order and the Jewish Banking Conspiracy and the Trilateral Commission and all that debunked b.s. from America's past?  That's just crazy talk.

I hope Dr. No will denounce these supporters and address real concerns facing Sioux Falls.  Or will Kermit Staggers' first order of business as mayor be to ban all Proctor and Gamble products because they might have the old "man in the moon" logo on them?